Three-way race for the Norris Trophy coming down to the wire

Three-way race for the Norris Trophy coming down to the wire

Roman Josi, Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar each have their own case to claim the award

By Ryan Mosher

NEW YORK (March 31, 2024) —The Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) is the group that decides the NHL award winners at the end of each season. There are 18 individual awards, including the Norris Trophy, an award given to the defenseman with “the greatest all around ability.”

The PHWA will have a difficult decision to make when the Norris Trophy vote arises. The race for the Norris Trophy looks to be especially tight this season. There are three contenders that may be worthy of the award, but only one can win.

The three leading contenders for the award are Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks, Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche and Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators.

The baseline offensive statistics for each player are similar. The totals of each player’s goals and assists differs by only eight. Each player has important statistics where they lead the others.

Josi leads in blocked shots and goals. Blocked shots are a key statistic for defenseman that shows how many shots they can prevent from reaching the goalie.

Makar leads in takeaways. Takeaways measure the amount of time a player legally takes possession of the puck away from the opposing team.

Hughes leads in plus/minus and assists. The plus/minus statistic tracks the number of even-strength goals for and against while a player is on the ice. When a player has a higher plus/minus, it means he has been on the ice for many more goals scored by his team compared to the opponents.

The common perception about the Norris Trophy is that only offensive statistics and abilities are taken into consideration. The offensive qualities a defenseman possesses should not be overlooked when handing out the award, but it is beginning to feel like the defensive qualities are.

The Norris Trophy has been given to the defenseman with the most points in the NHL eight times since the year 2000. Erik Karlsson, who is now a two-time winner of the award, won the Norris Trophy last season despite having a plus/minus of -26.

The blame for the poor plus/minus number is not entirely on Karlsson, since he played for the fourth-worst team in the NHL. However, once his San Jose Sharks were eliminated from playoff contention, it seemed like he cared less about his defense and more about the chase for 100 points. A defenseman had not collected 100 points in a season since Brian Leetch in the 1991-92 campaign until Karlsson achieved the feat last season.

Corsi is an advanced statistic designed to track a player’s effectiveness while on the ice. A player’s Corsi percentage is the percentage of shots his team attempts when the player is on the ice. For example, Hughes has a Corsi of 61.9%, so the Canucks attempt 61.9% of the shots while Hughes is on the ice.

Corsi does not factor high danger shots or chances. The logic behind the statistic is the more shots a team attempts with a player on the ice, the team has more possession and that makes the player more valuable.

Even though Corsi does not reflect them, high danger scoring chances are tracked. Josi currently ranks seventh in the NHL in high danger scoring chances (HDSC) for with 287. Hughes and Makar rank No. 10 and No. 67 respectively.

Although Makar ranks last of the three candidates in HDSC for, he has by far the better rating in HDSC against. He has given up 194 while Hughes and Josi have given up 271 and 251.

This statistic indicates that Makar doesn’t allow as many high danger scoring chances while he is on the ice. This is due to Josi and Hughes’ tendency to take more chances offensively, which can lead to dangerous chances for the opponent.

The PHWA is not shy about giving the Norris Trophy to a previous winner. There have been 13 repeat winners of the award, and Bobby Orr holds the record with eight Norris Trophy awards. Roman Josi and Cale Makar have both also previously won the Norris Trophy award.

Team success may also be considered when deciding this year’s award winner. Hughes was named the captain of the Canucks this year and is leading them to the playoffs for the first time since the COVID shortened 2019/2020 season. The last time the Canucks made the playoffs in a full 82-game campaign was nine years ago in the 2014/2015 season.

Another statistic to evaluate a defenseman’s value to their team is point shares. A player’s point share is the estimated number of points a player contributes to a team’s total. For example. Hughes has a point share of 12.8, so the Canucks would have 12.8 less points if Hughes was not playing.

With everything mentioned, the signs point to Quinn Hughes taking home this year’s Norris Trophy. Josi and Makar have their arguments, but Hughes leads Josi and Makar in points, plus/minus and Corsi percentage, while helping end his team’s playoff drought.