Three-way race for the Norris Trophy
coming down to the wire
Roman Josi, Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar
each have their own case to claim the award
By
Ryan Mosher
NEW
YORK (March 31, 2024) —The Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA)
is the group that decides the NHL award winners at the end of each season. There
are 18 individual awards, including the Norris Trophy, an award given to the defenseman
with “the greatest all around ability.”
The
PHWA will have a difficult decision to make when the Norris Trophy vote arises.
The race for the Norris Trophy looks to be especially tight this season. There
are three contenders that may be worthy of the award, but only one can win.
The
three leading contenders for the award are Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver
Canucks, Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche and Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators.
The
baseline offensive statistics for each player are similar. The totals of each
player’s goals and assists differs by only eight. Each player has important
statistics where they lead the others.
Josi
leads in blocked shots and goals. Blocked shots are a key statistic for
defenseman that shows how many shots they can prevent from reaching the goalie.
Makar
leads in takeaways. Takeaways measure the amount of time a player legally takes
possession of the puck away from the opposing team.
Hughes
leads in plus/minus and assists. The plus/minus statistic tracks the number of even-strength
goals for and against while a player is on the ice. When a player has a higher
plus/minus, it means he has been on the ice for many more goals scored by his team
compared to the opponents.
The
common perception about the Norris Trophy is that only offensive statistics and
abilities are taken into consideration. The offensive qualities a defenseman possesses
should not be overlooked when handing out the award, but it is beginning to feel
like the defensive qualities are.
The
Norris Trophy has been given to the defenseman with the most points in the NHL eight
times since the year 2000. Erik Karlsson, who is now a two-time winner of the award,
won the Norris Trophy last season despite having a plus/minus of -26.
The
blame for the poor plus/minus number is not entirely on Karlsson, since he played
for the fourth-worst team in the NHL. However, once his San Jose Sharks were
eliminated from playoff contention, it seemed like he cared less about his
defense and more about the chase for 100 points. A defenseman had not collected
100 points in a season since Brian Leetch in the 1991-92 campaign until Karlsson
achieved the feat last season.
Corsi
is an advanced statistic designed to track a player’s effectiveness while on
the ice. A player’s Corsi percentage is the percentage of shots his team
attempts when the player is on the ice. For example, Hughes has a Corsi of 61.9%,
so the Canucks attempt 61.9% of the shots while Hughes is on the ice.
Corsi
does not factor high danger shots or chances. The logic behind the statistic is
the more shots a team attempts with a player on the ice, the team has more possession
and that makes the player more valuable.
Even
though Corsi does not reflect them, high danger scoring chances are tracked. Josi
currently ranks seventh in the NHL in high danger scoring chances (HDSC) for with
287. Hughes and Makar rank No. 10 and No. 67 respectively.
Although
Makar ranks last of the three candidates in HDSC for, he has by far the better rating
in HDSC against. He has given up 194 while Hughes and Josi have given up 271 and
251.
This
statistic indicates that Makar doesn’t allow as many high danger scoring
chances while he is on the ice. This is due to Josi and Hughes’ tendency to
take more chances offensively, which can lead to dangerous chances for the
opponent.
The
PHWA is not shy about giving the Norris Trophy to a previous winner. There have
been 13 repeat winners of the award, and Bobby Orr holds the record with eight
Norris Trophy awards. Roman Josi and Cale Makar have both also previously won the
Norris Trophy award.
Team
success may also be considered when deciding this year’s award winner. Hughes
was named the captain of the Canucks this year and is leading them to the
playoffs for the first time since the COVID shortened 2019/2020 season. The
last time the Canucks made the playoffs in a full 82-game campaign was nine
years ago in the 2014/2015 season.
Another
statistic to evaluate a defenseman’s value to their team is point shares. A player’s
point share is the estimated number of points a player contributes to a team’s
total. For example. Hughes has a point share of 12.8, so the Canucks would have
12.8 less points if Hughes was not playing.
With
everything mentioned, the signs point to Quinn Hughes taking home this year’s
Norris Trophy. Josi and Makar have their arguments, but Hughes leads Josi and
Makar in points, plus/minus and Corsi percentage, while helping end his team’s
playoff drought.